R E G I O N R O U N D B A L L R E V I E W

The Pre-Season Poll
Just how accurate can it POSSIBLY be anyway?
Our hard-hitting (ouch!) exposé finds out...

The first copies of Hoosier Basketball Magazine hit the newsstands around the Indianapolis area yesterday, and as expected, the pre-season rankings are setting off a whirlwind of discussion. As it has in the past, HBM has compiled a Pre-Season Top 50 list (regardless of class), and a Pre-Season Top 15 list for each class.

For those of you who caught on last season, the HBM Top 15 for each class was a preview mirror image of the ICGSA Poll released about a week later during the first week of competition. (As we noted last season in our article about how the ICGSA Poll is tabulated, HBM owner Garry Donna compiles the results of ICGSA voting members for its weekly poll during the season.) The first official ICGSA regular season poll won't be released until November 13, which is after the first full week of competition.

So before you get up in arms about the disrespect shown to your team in the pre-season, keep reading. For fun, we took a look back at the four pre-season ICGSA class polls to see just how accurate the predictions were. Our preliminary conclusion? The polls were a fairly good predictor for about five of the top ten teams in each class or so, but the rest was a crap shoot. Just ask 1A State Champ Triton, who didn't receive a single vote in the pre-season and wasn't even in the Top 10 at the END of the season!

But what makes the pre-season poll so much fun for players, coaches and fans is that every team's record is still at 0-0 and the optimistic possibilities for every team in the state are limitless. That, and coaches just LOVE to use these pre-season polls for bulletin board material. In fact, we're guessing that our own RRR poll might be hanging in a few locker rooms around NWI right now. (Hmmm... targets can be red and white, can't they? One of the hazards of making public predictions on our site is that everyone knows who our home team is. Must say, it's not a great way to score extra points with your daughter's coach!)

So don't lament if your team has been overlooked. That overt omission just might turn into a really great team motivator. In fact, probably one of the most interesting tidbits in looking at the 99-00 pre-season polls is that one of the state finalists in each class -- Valpo, Columbia City, Forest Park and Triton -- came from way behind the pre-season voting pack to make it to state, determined to quiet the critics. You can bet a copy or two of the polls were hanging in their locker rooms at sometime during the season...

Class 4A - Teams in RED made semi-state appearances
(Pre-Season Semi-State hits: 3 of 8 for 38% accuracy.)

Pre- Season Rank	Final Poll Finish	Team	IHSAA Tourney Finish	Appeared/ Dropped Out in the Top 10
1	1	Ben Davis	State Championship: Defeated Valpo 56-53	--
2	--	Connersville	Sectional Championship: Lost 50-48 (OT) to Richmond	Dropped Week 3
3	3	New Albany	South Semi-State Championship: Lost 57-51 to Ben Davis	--
4	6t	FW Snider	North Semi-State Championship: Lost 57-45 to Valparaiso	--
5	6t	Jeffersonville	Sectional Championship: Lost 62-46 to New Albany	--
6	--	Martinsville	Sectional Semi-Finals: Lost 66-51 to Plainfield	Dropped Week 3
7	--	Perry Meridian	Sectional Championship: Lost 58-34 to Ben Davis	Dropped Week 2
8	--	Columbus East	Sectional Semi-Finals: Lost 77-55 to Center Grove	Dropped Week 6
9	--	SB Washington	Sectional Championship: Lost 55-50 to Valparaiso	Dropped Week 1
10	2	Highland	Sectional First Round: Lost 45-42 to Gary West Side	--
--	4	Valparaiso	State Championship: Lost 56-53 to Ben Davis	Appeared Week 2
--	5	Center Grove	Semi-State Championship: Lost 72-48 to Ben Davis	Appeared Week 3
--	8	Huntington North	Semi-State First Round: Lost 47-45 (OT) to Valparaiso	Appeared Week 4
--	10t	Kokomo	Sectional Semi-Final: Lost 67-60 to Huntington North	Appeared Week 5
--	10t	DeKalb	Sectional Semi-Final: Lost 53-46 to Ft. Wayne Northrop	Appeared Week 11

Best Predictions: Pre-season No. 1 Ben Davis, No. 3 New Albany and No. 4 Snider. All appeared in Semi-State competition.

Worst Predictions: Pre-season No. 2 Connersville, which dropped out of the Top 10 the third week of voting and completely fell off the radar the sixth week. (Not to mention that the No. 2, 6, 7 and 9 picks were all gone by Week 3.)

Biggest Oversights: Valparaiso, Huntington North and Center Grove, who were all semi-state participants and after pretty decent campaigns in 98-99, should have been considered solid pre-season contenders for 99-00.

Biggest Post-Season Upset: End-of-season No. 2 Highland, which fell in the first round of sectional play to Gary West Side.

Conclusion: Pretty good job on the top five or so, but some overlooked contenders really came out with a point to prove by knocking out five of the Top 10 by mid-season.

4A Pre-Season Poll Grade: B-

Class 3A - Teams in RED made semi-state appearances
(Pre-season semi-state hits: 3 of 8 for 38% accuracy.)

Pre- Season Rank	Final Poll Finish	Team	IHSAA Tourney Finish	Appeared/ Dropped Out of the Top 10
1	1	Cathedral	State Championship D. Columbia City 58-44	--
2	7	Franklin	Regional Lost 54-38 to Cathedral	--
3	6	Evansville Memorial	Semi-State 1st Round Lost 83-52 to Corydon	--
4	3	Twin Lakes	Sectional Semi-Final Lost 55-54 to Frankfort	--
5	2	Mt. Vernon (Ft.)	Sectional Semi-Final Lost 59-56 to Cathedral	--
6	--	Corydon	Semi-State Championship Lost 67-53 to Cathedral	Dropped Week 9
7	4	Rochester	Regional Lost 63-58 to Frankfort	--
8	--	NorthWood	Sectional Semi-Final Lost 48-44 to Wawasee	Dropped Week 5
9	8	Jasper	Regional Lost 61-45 to Evans. Memorial	--
10	--	Roncalli	Sectional 1st Round Lost 75-40 to Mt. Vernon (Ft.)	Dropped Week 3
--	5	Lebanon	Semi-State 1st Round Lost 61-49 to Cathedral	Appeared Week 5
--	9	Plymouth	Sectional Championship Lost 44-34 to Rochester	Appeared Week 12
--	10t	Columbia City	State Tournament Lost 58-44 to Cathedral	Appeared Week 14
--	10t	Elwood	Sectional Championship Lost 42-40 to Alexandria	Appeared Week 9

Best Predictions: Pre-season No. 1 Cathedral, No. 3 Evansville Memorial, and No. 5 Mt. Vernon (Fortville). Cathedral was State Champ, Memorial was at the Semi-State (although they were clobbered by Corydon without the full services of injured scoring leader Kate Endress), and Mt. Vernon gave Cathedral their closest tournament game in a 59-56 sectional semi-final barnburner.

Worst Prediction: Even though NorthWood is a traditionally strong program, they fell out of the running early in Week 5. The loss of two D1 players was too much of an adjustment for the Black Swish.

Biggest Oversights: Missing the boat on the teams in the North part of the state. The only 3A North Semi-State participant that received votes in the pre-season was Columbia City, which actually received the fewest votes of all teams in the pre-season poll.

Biggest Post-Season Upset: End-of-season No. 4 Twin Lakes, which lost 55-54 to unranked Frankfort in the first round of sectional play.

Conclusion: Again, pretty good predictions for the Top 5 or so. One of the problems was the concentration of good teams feeding into the South Semi-State (Franklin, Mt. Vernon) that fell victim to No. 1 Cathedral in the early going of the tournament. But where the heck did semi-state contenders Frankfort, Griffith and Alexandria come from? There is always at least one surprise contender at each semi-state, but three? The North needed a closer pre-season look in this class.

3A Pre-Season Poll Grade: C+

Class 2A - Teams in RED made semi-state appearances
(Pre-Season Semi-State hits: 4 of 8 for 50% accuracy.)

Pre- Season Rank	Final Poll Finish	Team	IHSAA Tourney Finish	Appeared/ Dropped Out in the Top 10
1	1	FW Luers	State Championship D. Forest Park 62-60	--
2	6	N. Newton	Sectional Championship Lost 62-49 to North Judson	--
3	2	N. Judson	Semi-State Championship Lost 74-59 to Luers	--
4	--	Hanover Central	Regional Lost 49-46 to North Judson	Dropped Week 1
5	9	Seeger	Semi-State Championship Lost 56-40 to Forest Park	--
6	--	Austin	Regional Lost 34-32 to North Decatur	Dropped Week 3
7	10	Winchester	Sectional Championship Lost 62-60 to Shenandoah	--
8	8	Fountain Central	Sectional Championship Lost 40-30 to Seeger	--
9	--	LaVille	Sectional Championship Lost 48-41 to Glenn	Dropped Week 11
10	3	Frankton	Semi-State 1st Round Lost 59-56 to North Judson	--
--	4	Lewis Cass	Regional Lost 70-27 to Luers	Appeared Week 2
--	5	Forest Park	State Championship Lost 62-60 to Luers	Appeared Week 5
--	7	Leo	Sectional Semi-Final Lost 38-34 to Woodlan	Appeared Week 9

Best Prediction: Pre-season No. 1 Luers, No. 3 North Judson, No. 5 Seeger and No. 10 Frankton. Luers was State Champ and the others made Semi-State appearances.

Worst Prediction: Not too many bad ones here, but the worst by default has to be Pre-Season No. 6 LaVille, which fell to Glenn in sectional play. Some would say, "Why not Hanover Central or Austin?" Even though the Wildcats and Eagles were dropped from the Top 10 early, they both proved to be worthy opponents for Semi-State Championship contenders North Judson and North Decatur.

Biggest Oversights: This time it has got to be State Runner-Up Forest Park, especially since the Rangers didn't even receive a single vote in the pre-season poll. But this one is forgivable since only three pre-season picks were dropped from the poll by season's end.

Biggest Post-Season Upset: End-of-season No. 10 Winchester, who dropped a 62-60 heart-breaker to unranked Shenandoah.

Conclusion: Pretty darn good predictions overall.

2A Pre-Season Poll Grade: A-

Class 1A - Teams in RED made semi-state appearances
(Pre-Season Semi-State hits: 3 of 8 for 37% accuracy.)

Pre- Season Rank	Final Poll Finish	Team	IHSAA Tourney Finish	Appeared/ Dropped Out in the Top 10
1	4	Rising Sun	State Championship Lost 57-54 (OT) to Triton	--
2	3	New Washington	Semi-State 1st Round Lost 55-51 to White River Valley	--
3	7	Clinton Central	Sectional 1st Round Lost 43-38 to Lafayette Catholic	--
4	5	Eminence	Sectional Championship Lost 55-45 to Turkey Run	--
5	10	Clinton Prairie	Sectional 1st Round Lost 59-53 to Triton	--
6	--	Park Tudor	Sectional Semi-Final Lost 55-46 to Clinton Prairie	Dropped Week 3
7	6	Lakeview Christian	Semi-State 1st Round Lost 69-51 to Lapel	--
8	--	Washington Catholic	Sectional Championship Lost 43-34 to Barr-Reeve	Dropped Week 8
9	1	White River Valley	Semi-State Championship Lost 50-42 to Rising Sun	--
10	2	Northeast Dubois	Regionals Lost 57-45 to New Washington	--
--	8	South Decatur	Sectional Championship Lost 50-35 to Rising Sun	Added Week 13
--	9	Tri	Sectional Championship Lost 59-46 to Lapel	Added Week 9
--	--	Triton	State Championship D. Rising Sun 57-54 (OT)	Was only Top 10 during Week 4!

Best Predictions: Pre-season No. 1 Rising Sun barely missed as the fourth correctly-predicted state champion in the pre-season polls for all classes. Also, only two teams were dropped from the Top 10 poll by the end of the season.

Worst Prediction: Pre-season No. 6 Park Tudor, which dropped from the Top 10 in Week 3 and lost in second-round sectional play to Clinton Prairie.

Biggest Oversights: The biggest oversight in all of the polls put together -- the omission of State Champion Triton from the pre-season poll, and to add insult to injury, the end-of-season poll too! Can everyone in 1A spell R-E-S-P-E-C-T? They can now, after Triton showed them how!

Biggest Post-Season Upset: End-of-season No. 5 Eminence, which was shown the door early by unranked Turkey Run in a 55-45 sectional championship loss.

Conclusion: Not real bad, but not real good either. Only two teams dropped out of the Top 10 by the end of the season, but pre-season No. 9 and 10 ended up No. 1 and 2 by the end. Lots of underestimated team talent in this class.

1A Pre-Season Poll Grade: B-

Our Final Conclusion? Pre-season predictions are about as reliable as stock market predictions, which, as we all know, are not reliable at all. The great thing about making predictions in basketball, though, is that you won't lose your house doing it!